Tesla (TSLA Quick QuoteTSLA - Free Report) is slated to post fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 29, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 76 cents per share and $27.61 billion, respectively.

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Tesla’s third-quarter 2024 earnings rose year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The EV behemoth surpassed earnings estimates on three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with an average surprise of 0.13%.

Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Tesla, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote

Tesla’s Estimate Revisions

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has moved down by a penny in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate for the bottom line implies year-over-year growth of 7.04%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year rise of 9.72%.

Factors to Shape TSLA’s Q4 Results

Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries reached 495,570 (comprising 471,930 Model 3/Y and 23,640 other models) units worldwide, up 2.3% and 7.1% on a yearly and sequential basis, respectively. But the deliveries missed our forecast of 517,043 units. In October 2024, Tesla discontinued its cheapest Model 3 rear-wheel drive Standard Range version. Lower-than-expected deliveries are likely to have dented the company’s automotive revenues. However, the firm’s manufacturing efficiency is improving. We expect the automotive gross margin to expand 10 basis points from the year-ago period to 18.4%.

Thanks to record sales of its Powerwall products in the second and third quarters, Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage division is experiencing strong revenue growth. This segment is highly profitable and delivers the highest margins. In the fourth quarter, its energy storage deployment reached 11 GWh, up 244% year over year. The strong performance of the Energy Generation and Storage business is likely to bolster the result of the fourth quarter. We expect revenues from the Energy Generation/Storage segment to be $3.03 billion, suggesting growth of 110.6% year over year. Our estimate for Services/Other unit is pegged at $3.1 billion, implying growth of 43% year over year.

What Does Our Model Say About Tesla?

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of -2.65%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Earnings Whispers for Other Auto Biggies

General Motors Company (GM Quick QuoteGM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. It is scheduled to post fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.75 per share. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

GM exceeded earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.54%.

PACCAR Inc (PCAR Quick QuotePCAR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is slated to post fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Jan. 28. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.68 per share. 

PCAR surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 7.02%.

Ford Motor Company (F Quick QuoteF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to post fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 34 cents per share. 

F surpassed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, matched once and missed once, the average surprise being 32.95%.